US economic growth has been relatively modest in the first quarter with GDP growth expectations ranging
from 1.5% to 2%. Meanwhile...
Commentary
Commentary and Perspectives
Read SFE’s latest quarterly commentaries
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Q1 2023 Quarterly Commentary – April 2023
Q4 2022 Quarterly Commentary – January 2023
2022 will be remembered as the year the Fed finally took Covid inflation seriously. After having increased
the economy’s money supply...
Q3 2022 Quarterly Commentary – October 2022
Our longer-term view for our clients’ portfolios remains much more positive than what is currently reflected
in market prices...
Q2 2022 Quarterly Commentary – July 2022
Given the extraordinary downside volatility affecting both equity and bond prices this past quarter, we felt an early commentary might be appreciated......
Q1 2022 Quarterly Commentary – May 2022
After two historic years with the entire world dealing with the extraordinary ramifications of the Covid-19virus, 2022 started out seemingly headed down a path towards normalization across global economies...
Q4 2021 Quarterly Commentary – January 2022
While the Omicron variant rages into 2022, there remain many favorable investment and economic trends that will continue to co-exist within the pandemic now two years old. 2021 saw the S&P 500 surge...
Q3 2021 Quarterly Commentary – October 2021
As the third quarter came to an end, investors began to recognize that economic growth was somewhat slower than expected and inflation somewhat higher. Payrolls were a little weaker while wages had increased more than expected. Some on Wall Street were...
Q2 2021 Quarterly Commentary – July 2021
First quarter GDP was officially reported as 6.4% and the expectation is that Q2 was even stronger. As US vaccination levels rose from roughly 30% at the beginning of the 2nd quarter to more than 60% by the end, economic activity accelerated and...
Q1 2021 Quarterly Commentary – April 2021
The first quarter of 2021 has brought a renewed sense of optimism that we’re close to putting the worst aspects of Covid behind us; and, that a broad and diverse range of normal everyday activities will once again be part of our daily lives and...
Q4 2020 Quarterly Commentary – January 2021
2020 will be remembered as the year the world experienced its worst pandemic in 100 years. The virus and resulting societal reactions have upended the daily lives of literally everyone...
Q3 2020 Quarterly Commentary – October 2020
The past quarter saw substantial improvements in the underlying domestic economy (GDP estimated up 25%) as well as equity returns (S&P 500 up 8%). Consensus expectations suggest continued positive…
Q2 2020 Quarterly Commentary – July 2020
The past quarter has been bittersweet. The Covid-19 virus exceeded almost everyone’s worst expectations with global cases now at 10 million and the number of deaths above 500,000. For much of the quarter investors were somewhat dumbfounded as the economy obviously declined significantly while asset prices rose strongly with the S&P up 21%…
Q1 2020 Quarterly Commentary – April 2020
The global response to slow Covid-19 has temporarily impacted the underlying economies which support us all. To counter that impact, our government has taken substantial actions to support our economy, including both the $2 trillion fiscal stimulus package as well as…
The coronavirus poses risks that are largely unprecedented. Reliable information about its scope and duration is hard to come by; making predictions is beyond our expertise. All we can do in that regard is urge all of our readers to take appropriate precautions – be careful out there! But we can and should let you know what we think of its economic and market consequences.
Letter to Clients – March 3, 2020
The spreading coronavirus has created uncertainty and anxiety for many people in their daily lives. This is a normal reaction and we can only offer what the medical professionals have been saying… However, the economic and market impact of the coronavirus is an area we feel we can offer expertise.
Q4 2019 Quarterly Commentary – December 2019
By now everyone is aware of the strong market returns in 2019; less appreciated is that much of the performance was simply getting back to…
Q3 2019 Quarterly Commentary – October 2019
Continuing their climb up a wall of worry, US equities rose 1.7% during Q3. Valuation multiples remain reasonable and we hope to see continued modest market appreciation…
Q2 2019 Quarterly Commentary – July 2019
After a very strong Q1 performance, equities continued to rise in Q2 with the S&P 500 up an additional 5%. This brings 2019 S&P 500 performance up above 18%! We believe…
Q1 2019 Quarterly Commentary – April 2019
Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab’s insightful chief investment officer, prefers to think about the economy in terms of “better or worse” instead of “good or bad.” In other words, expectations can be…
How to Detect an Identity Thief
Identity theft may be one of the oldest techniques in the fraud book, but it remains prevalent, especially in a world where much more information is…
Q4 2018 Quarterly Commentary – January 2019
Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab’s insightful chief investment officer, prefers to think about the economy in terms of “better or worse” instead of “good or bad.” In other words, expectations can be…
Q4 2018 President’s Message – December 2018
As 2018 comes to a close, we’d like to reach out to you and acknowledge our shared frustration but to also offer encouragement for 2019. As much as we’d prefer the markets to act in an orderly, rational…
Q3 2018 Quarterly Commentary – October 2018
US economic activity, corporate earnings and domestic equity returns were all strong this past quarter. We expect these robust fundamentals to moderate some going forward but they should still…
Positive Screening: Steps Toward an Ideal World
In the same way consumers pushed organic farming into the mainstream, investors are bringing socially responsible investing front and center. Like shoppers reading…
Q2 2018 Quarterly Commentary – July 2018
After an up and down start to the year, equities reached mid-year with the S&P500 up roughly 2%. Yet, it has felt like a loss given all the negativity surrounding trade disputes, election investigations and other concerns…
Q1 2018 Quarterly Commentary – April 2018
After rising more than 8% in the first few weeks of January, the S&P 500 fell roughly 9% through the end of Q1 leaving the index down almost 1% year-to-date. What just happened?